Dean Smith used to love telling the story about his recruitment of Kenny Smith - yes, that Kenny Smith on the NBA/March Madness TV studio. Back in the 80's there was one of the first newsletters that covered hoops recruiting in the ACC called the Poop Sheet (I kid you not...older folks may remember it). They applied star ratings. Kenny Smith was a 2-star according to the Poop Sheet's founder and editor, Brick Oetinger. When UNC signed him out of his NY high school, Brick all of a sudden raised him to a 4-star sight-unseen. Dean Smith laughed about this and used it many times regarding his disgust for "analysts", their star ratings, and how ridiculous he saw it all. Things have advanced today so not meaning it is all a complete sham - especially in hoops where they play better competition via AAU and travel/showcase for evaluation. But, to your point, reverse causation may be and probably is evident more than folks who worship the star system believe. In other words, are the stars driving the team or is the team/attention driving the stars. Maybe a little of both. I'll trust the coaches. They actually sit across the table, shake the hands, speak to parents and teachers and coaches, look them in the eye, etc.