@ND Baseball (Poll)

[Techcaster572]

You won't see Kent this weekend. He didn't make the trip. Illness... according to Colin on radio yesterday.

That's good to know.
Was thinking it could be an injury or something else so hopefully he will be back in the lineup against the tigers next weekend.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

If I was ND and I had a 1/3 chance of splitting a 2 game series vs a 9/10 chance of losing a 3 games series vs a 1/5 chance of being swept I know how I’d vote. It’s just playing the odds. 500 brave souls attended the game. It probably cost more to turn the lights on than they got at the gate unless they were selling hot chocolate at $10/cup.

Didn't make anything at the gate, as the game was free to attend.

 

[bensaysitathome]

I agree on the rpi metrics (TIC-tongue in cheek) as I feel it's a silly metric that the committee seems to pay attention to.
It is important to get ranked as this is what the sec does....They own the rpi top 20 and they play each other so they RARELY if ever take a rpi hit unless they just collapse.
For example, tech could secure two conference road series wins with a win today, but do we get the RPI credit of a secheat team.... No we do not.

I agree re: conference bias and poll inertia. But it's also important to note that RPI doesn't care about conferences or polls. (This is more of a PSA than a response to you, but it comes up every season so here we go).

It's a mathematical equation based on your record, opponent record, and opponent's opponent record. Essentially a glorified strength-of-schedule with only a mild consideration for actually winning or losing your games. Easily gamed, and often rewards the wrong things. But it's important to the committee.

 

[Techcaster572]

I agree re: conference bias and poll inertia. But it's also important to note that RPI doesn't care about conferences or polls. (This is more of a PSA than a response to you, but it comes up every season so here we go).

It's a mathematical equation based on your record, opponent record, and opponent's opponent record. Essentially a glorified strength-of-schedule with only a mild consideration for actually winning or losing your games. Easily gamed, and often rewards the wrong things. But it's important to the committee.

Agreed on all that you said regarding RPI and its importance to the committee.
The polls are usually heavily biased towards secheat teams which will play into the rpi equation which is why I'm not a fan of this metric.

It's why its important to win or sweep every series that tech is favorited to win cause of the sec bias in the polls.

We are 18-4 and unranked and ugag is 22-2 and has a top rpi and baseball ranking.
ugag has had to comeback nearly 1/2 of their games (Many of those comebacks in the 9th). In a similar opponent, (Ga State) the panthers put up 10 on the mutts and we held Ga State to 2 runs. The mutts could EASILY have 3-4 bad losses but their offense absolutely saved their butt.

I'm not saying we are the better team or should be higher ranked than them, but I'll say this. I think we beat the mutts this year at Truist and there isn't much of a difference between them and us.
Our defense and pitching is better. Their offense is better. Generally when Tech outslugs opponents like ugag is doing, we ended up collapsing.
Give me pitching and defense over offense and I'll show you a team that likely heads to Omaha.
And as an aside, their coach is a tool and leads as such!

 

[FredJacket]

All that ALL are saying about RPI is true. & it matters more (I think) for bubble teams (in or out) & lower seeds (regional assignments). When it comes to hosting or national seeding, I think the committee has more apples to apples things to consider. Like conference record... head to head... "hot" or "struggling" teams in late May.

I also think Ga Tech gets a little (unprovable) bump in hosting based on geographic location & quality of our baseball field.

So... if GT in top 5 in ACC, they'll host.

 

[gtbeak]

I agree re: conference bias and poll inertia. But it's also important to note that RPI doesn't care about conferences or polls. (This is more of a PSA than a response to you, but it comes up every season so here we go).

It's a mathematical equation based on your record, opponent record, and opponent's opponent record. Essentially a glorified strength-of-schedule with only a mild consideration for actually winning or losing your games. Easily gamed, and often rewards the wrong things. But it's important to the committee.

Thank you...I don't understand why this board has so much mis-understanding about RPI. It is a very valid metric for who won, who they beat. It is a lot better than the insane NET system that basketball uses and light years better than some human committee that uses the eye test as is done in football. The only potential quibble one should have with it is the weighting that is used for home/away games (and my pet peeve that it isn't balanced between the two, but that is a result of most people not understanding basic math).

With the above said, the RPI should not be looked at except for entertainment value until all of the data is in, which it certainly isn't right now.

 

[gtbeak]

The polls are usually heavily biased towards secheat teams which will play into the rpi equation.

The above is not true. The RPI equation is not aware of the polls...it doesn't even know they exist. It doesn't know there is any such thing as the SEC (or the ACC, or any other conference).

 

[Techcaster572]

The above is not true. The RPI equation is not aware of the polls...it doesn't even know they exist. It doesn't know there is any such thing as the SEC (or the ACC, or any other conference).

Ok. Let me clarify what I meant by this.
Strength of schedule and playing at home vs the road matters.

Yes, there isn't a bias in RPI; however, there is due to the fact strength of schedule and quality wins matter so the bias in the top 20 rankings that is HEAVILY slanted to the sec.

Do you actually think the mutts are the 4th best team in the country. Anyone arguing "well the mutts are taking it to florida this weekend". Ok...so what. Is UF actually that good? Polls say so. Has them @ 13th in the country. Mutts get huge rpi credit for beating especially on the road. Uf is 0-5 in the sec so is UF actually deserving of being ranked 13? RPI does factor in quality of wins so you are half right but it doesn't exclude the heavily favored polling bias tilted towards the sec. Beating the #13 ranked gators in gainesville does matter to the RPI as a quality win for the mutts.

I don't like preseason or early season polls both in baseball and football for college.
Personally I think Tech is a better team than UF and would take the series but polls would say "No chance" so when the mutts beat the #13 team in the country on the road, it counts a lot for rpi points as a big quality road win

 

[gtbeak]

Ok. Let me clarify what I meant by this.
Strength of schedule and playing at home vs the road matters.

Yes, there isn't a bias in RPI; however, there is due to the fact strength of schedule and quality wins matter so the bias in the top 20 rankings that is HEAVILY slanted to the sec.

Do you actually think the mutts are the 4th best team in the country. Anyone arguing "well the mutts are taking it to florida this weekend". Ok...so what. Is UF actually that good? Polls say so. Has them @ 13th in the country. Mutts get huge rpi credit for beating especially on the road. Uf is 0-5 in the sec so is UF actually deserving of being ranked 13? RPI does factor in quality of wins so you are half right but it doesn't exclude the heavily favored polling bias tilted towards the sec. Beating the #13 ranked gators in gainesville does matter to the RPI as a quality win for the mutts.

I don't like preseason or early season polls both in baseball and football for college.
Personally I think Tech is a better team than UF and would take the series but polls would say "No chance" so when the mutts beat the #13 team in the country on the road, it counts a lot for rpi points as a big quality road win

I honestly have no idea who the 4th best team is in the country. It's only March 22nd. Get back with me on May 22nd and I may have an opinion, but even then my opinion won't matter. The 4th best team will theoretically be decided on the field in June.

FYI, RPI right now says that Tech and Florida are essentially even. They are 27th (I think) and we are 29th. After today our RPI will go up since we are playing an extremely tough (per the RPI) Notre Dame squad on the road. I'm not sure what Florida's RPI will do after losing a home game to an equally tough (per the RPI) Georgia squad, but my guess is that they will drop into the 30s.

 

[Techcaster572]

Not really worried about rpi.

Just making a point.
I'm completely shocked that Mason is in for Jones in the 3rd. Why not just start Mason on Saturday and let Jones come in for relief. Guess him starting tomorrow is completely out the door.

It's seems that hall coaches to win a series vs going for a sweep.

 

[roccorusso01]

Not really worried about rpi.

Just making a point.
I'm completely shocked that Mason is in for Jones in the 3rd. Why not just start Mason on Saturday and let Jones come in for relief. Guess him starting tomorrow is completely out the door.

It's seems that hall coaches to win a series vs going for a sweep.

Eh I think it was a good decision we probably left Sunday TBD so that if we don't have any super high leverage situations we can start patel but if we do burn him we can send out stanford. That situation was high leverage (Up 2 bases loaded 1 out) and patel got out of it without giving anything up at the end of the day that is a good result.

 

[Techcaster572]

Eh I think it was a good decision we probably left Sunday TBD so that if we don't have any super high leverage situations we can start patel but if we do burn him we can send out stanford. That situation was high leverage (Up 2 bases loaded 1 out) and patel got out of it without giving anything up at the end of the day that is a good result.

Though it was good that Mason got us out of the bases loaded jam but Brady only lasted 2 and 2/3 inning forcing Mason in. Why not move Brady or Riley to pen and let Mason start.

Based on his performance so far, we'd be up 9-0 and have Brady available in relief (He has very good stuff imo but just lacks control).

With the innings he's pitched today, he's likely not available tomorrow so why not let him start???

Now, if Paden is out for an extended period of time, I can certainly understand keeping Mason in the pen but when/if he gets back, Mason should start

 

[FredJacket]

Not really worried about rpi.

Just making a point.
I'm completely shocked that Mason is in for Jones in the 3rd. Why not just start Mason on Saturday and let Jones come in for relief. Guess him starting tomorrow is completely out the door.

It's seems that hall coaches to win a series vs going for a sweep.

Colin talked about it on radio. Paraphrasing... Coach Taylor likes him in this role. Colin mentioned (not sure if this part is from Taylor or not)... Patel was more effective out of pen last year than when starting.

Would be awesome for some of my crack research assistants to run that theory to ground using baseball data.

 

[gtbeak]

Colin talked about it on radio. Paraphrasing... Coach Taylor likes him in this role. Colin mentioned (not sure if this part is from Taylor or not)... Patel was more effective out of pen last year than when starting.

Would be awesome for some of my crack research assistants to run that theory to ground using baseball data.

On it, Fred...but I gotta take my daughter to work first.

But it is obvious that the coaches like that security blanket out there, and so far he is getting an opportunity to pitch high leverage innings every weekend, so the concept is working quite well. IMO you keep rolling with it till it stops working and re-assess at that point.

It's also obvious that they have no intentions whatsoever of using Patel on consecutive days, so once he's in they roll with him until he stops being effective. Even if that means leaving him on the hill with a big lead.

 

[THWG]

Another good series win!! Patel is so valuable in the role of putting out fires and giving us length out of the pen. Now, we have a fresh staff for tomorrow. I'd imagine that we start Spivey

 

[GT33]

I can’t believe we’ll play tomorrow. Insane with 40F temps and rain to put players out there. Just inviting injuries and sickness

 

[FredJacket]

I can’t believe we’ll play tomorrow. Insane with 40F temps and rain to put players out there. Just inviting injuries and sickness

There was talk about a 10am start to beat the rain.

 

[GT33]

There was talk about a 10am start to beat the rain.

Maddux isn’t pitching and the Braves aren’t hitting. A 2 hour game is not gonna happen.

 

[gtbeak]

Colin talked about it on radio. Paraphrasing... Coach Taylor likes him in this role. Colin mentioned (not sure if this part is from Taylor or not)... Patel was more effective out of pen last year than when starting.

Would be awesome for some of my crack research assistants to run that theory to ground using baseball data.

OK Fred, great theory, but the numbers don't really support it. I will say that most of his good outings were in relief, but his worst outings were also in relief, so they balance each other out when all rolled together. But a coach probably just remembers the good outings, and those were mostly in relief, so that likely fuels Taylor's thoughts on the subject.

As a starter: 19.33 innings, 31 hits, 17 runs, 17 earned, 16 K, 6 BB, 7.92 ERA, 1.91 WHIP
As a reliever: 16.67 innings, 23 hits, 16 runs, 16 earned, 16 K, 10 BB, 8.64 ERA, 1.98 WHIP

 

[DecaturJacket]

Maddux isn’t pitching and the Braves aren’t hitting. A 2 hour game is not gonna happen.

If he was, half this board would want him coming out of the pen anyway ...