Ranking projection

Root4GT

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Northeast Stinger said:
Look at Alabama’s losses vs Oregon’s losses!
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I would say Oregon lost to the one good team they played. Alabama beat 4 good teams. To me, 4 good wins vs zero trumps 1 bad loss vs 1 loss to a good team.

Going forward Oregon plays no ranked teams. Alabama plays 2 ranked teams. If they win out I put Alabama clearly above Oregon as Bama would have 6 wins against ranked teams and Oregon would have none!
 
slugboy

slugboy

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roadkill said:
For FPI, I think it’s more preseason bias still in play rather than simply SEC bias. How else can you explain Missouri and Vandy both dropping two ranks after SEC wins? And Vandy beat a highly ranked SEC team. Meanwhile, we beat unranked Duke and rose 9 spots.

Also, since FPI is intended to be predictive, it can have some interesting quirks based on the chances of making the conference playoff. For example, right now, FPI ranks us third overall in the ACC, but gives us the highest chance (33%) of winning it. Higher than Miami’s 27%.
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SP+ has us at 28th, but the resume (what have you done) has us at 12th. That’s a big discrepancy. Either we’re unbelievably lucky, or there’s something that the model isn’t modeling.

The EPA models like FPI are even more glaring. Even Sagarin, the granddaddy of “just win baby” models, has us in the 20’s
 

WreckinGT

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4shotB said:
@CuseJacket posted a good video breaking down our game. One guy said WTTE that Duke had stats that computer models loved but that the stats don’t account accurately for issues inside the red zone. In my words he said what we saw, they were great at getting yards but terrible in getting points. I thought Duke’s numbers were also skewed somehow by their crazy TO margin. But glad the smart money liked Duke in the game. Only helps with public perception.
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Duke has played three decent teams this year and got handled pretty well by all three, one of which was a G5 team. I watched all 3 games. They are not good. This is one where im not sure where the hype ever came from or how the stats ever worked out to make them look good. Im glad we didn't slip up against them but I never really thought they had much of a chance even if we didn't play well.
 
Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

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Root4GT said:
I would say Oregon lost to the one good team they played. Alabama beat 4 good teams. To me, 4 good wins vs zero trumps 1 bad loss vs 1 loss to a good team.

Going forward Oregon plays no ranked teams. Alabama plays 2 ranked teams. If they win out I put Alabama clearly above Oregon as Bama would have 6 wins against ranked teams and Oregon would have none!
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Nice theory.
 
BainbridgeJacket

BainbridgeJacket

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#7 in both polls!?!?


the-mask-award.gif
 
Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

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Root4GT said:
Do you have a position? If they win out who would you rank higher and why?
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I think won/loss record is the key at this point and anything based off of preseason polls goes in the trash. Just go with records. Teams with losses should not be ranked ahead of undefeated teams. That’s football. Beauty pageants are bs at this point.

Therefore, beating a “ranked team” has to also be taken with a large grain of salt if the ranking of the beaten team was built off of their preseason position.

I’m more interested in what the actual record on the field is of the teams you lost to.

What is FSU’s record vs Indiana’s record? That seems like the only solid data point. Everything else you can make a case for has tainted data.

But it has great entertainment value which we found out years ago is the primary point of polls.
 

L41k18

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slugboy said:
SP+ has us at 28th, but the resume (what have you done) has us at 12th. That’s a big discrepancy. Either we’re unbelievably lucky, or there’s something that the model isn’t modeling.

The EPA models like FPI are even more glaring. Even Sagarin, the granddaddy of “just win baby” models, has us in the 20’s
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Let me say up front I have no idea how thess models work or what they're based on. But here is my theory:

Our philosophy is to:
1.Play field position
2. To do this, you need excellent special teams play and you must commit few 2nd half turnovers.
3. Therefore, the defensive philosophy is to keep everything in front of you and tackle well. Making the other team have to go on long drives maximizes the chance they will make a drive-killing mistake. But this means you will give up a lot of yards on defense.
4. Offensively, we are smashmouth with the ability to execute precision passes at the right time. This results in the opposition defense being worn down in the 4th quarter and enhances the chance for victory, but does not produce a ton of big plays and so the total offense yards won't be eye-catching.

All that together probably doesn't help our ranking in these types of metrics.
 
roadkill

roadkill

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L41k18 said:
Let me say up front I have no idea how thess models work or what they're based on. But here is my theory:

Our philosophy is to:
1.Play field position
2. To do this, you need excellent special teams play and you must commit few 2nd half turnovers.
3. Therefore, the defensive philosophy is to keep everything in front of you and tackle well. Making the other team have to go on long drives maximizes the chance they will make a drive-killing mistake. But this means you will give up a lot of yards on defense.
4. Offensively, we are smashmouth with the ability to execute precision passes at the right time. This results in the opposition defense being worn down in the 4th quarter and enhances the chance for victory, but does not produce a ton of big plays and so the total offense yards won't be eye-catching.

All that together probably doesn't help our ranking in these types of metrics.
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I was about to reply to @slugboy's post below with something similar.
slugboy said:
SP+ has us at 28th, but the resume (what have you done) has us at 12th. That’s a big discrepancy. Either we’re unbelievably lucky, or there’s something that the model isn’t modeling.

The EPA models like FPI are even more glaring. Even Sagarin, the granddaddy of “just win baby” models, has us in the 20’s
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I have no explanation for FPI’s disparities, but SP+ has several stated biases like recruiting rankings that can explain our relatively low rank. It also attempts to be a proxy for team efficiency. I’m not sure what exactly goes into that, but it’s worth noting that Duke had the better success rate and yards/play on Saturday. The computers probably ding bend-don’t-break defenses as well, since they often allow opponents to move the ball effectively between the 20’s regardless of the final score.

All this to say that we don’t necessarily win the beauty contest, we just win the games.
 
Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

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L41k18 said:
Let me say up front I have no idea how thess models work or what they're based on. But here is my theory:

Our philosophy is to:
1.Play field position
2. To do this, you need excellent special teams play and you must commit few 2nd half turnovers.
3. Therefore, the defensive philosophy is to keep everything in front of you and tackle well. Making the other team have to go on long drives maximizes the chance they will make a drive-killing mistake. But this means you will give up a lot of yards on defense.
4. Offensively, we are smashmouth with the ability to execute precision passes at the right time. This results in the opposition defense being worn down in the 4th quarter and enhances the chance for victory, but does not produce a ton of big plays and so the total offense yards won't be eye-catching.

All that together probably doesn't help our ranking in these types of metrics.
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That’s pretty much the way I see it.

Even in the first half against Duke when we were having trouble getting untracked I noticed that our running game plus bend but don’t break defense was really limiting the number of possessions for Duke. Even if the game had continued in the same fashion in the second half we were still looking at being in position to win a one score game.
 

finalbuzzer

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If we make the playoffs I think it only right we get matched with Vandy as a repeat of last year's ignored bowl game but this time with all the implications of playoff football. Now of course the real reason is that I think we should be able to sink them this year (heap of stingers below their water line).
 
apatriot1776

apatriot1776

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Think Miami’s loss helped us. The pollsters can justify several 5-1 SEC teams ahead of Vanderbilt. Based strictly on resume, they can’t justify Miami ahead of GT. Miami is good enough to be top 10 though, meaning GT must be top 10.
 

MtnWasp

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L41k18 said:
the opposition defense being worn down in the 4th quarter
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This may be our most consistent advantage so far this season. We just seem to play better than our opponents in the 4th quarter. Is it conditioning? Depth? Competitive stamina / toughness? Veteran leadership? Coaching? All of the above?

Whatever it is, it has been this team's Secret Sauce this season so far.
 

cpf2001

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slugboy said:
SP+ has us at 28th, but the resume (what have you done) has us at 12th. That’s a big discrepancy. Either we’re unbelievably lucky, or there’s something that the model isn’t modeling.

The EPA models like FPI are even more glaring. Even Sagarin, the granddaddy of “just win baby” models, has us in the 20’s
Click to expand...
FPI moved us up to 26 now (+9) I think it liked the air attack and it liked Duke as a better opponent to do it against.

I dont even think they’re “broken” per se, just that we are in a bit of an outlier blind spot team-philosophy-wise.

BUT I would love another couple blowouts though, it would make me feel better as well!
 
Towaliga

Towaliga

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finalbuzzer said:
If we make the playoffs I think it only right we get matched with Vandy as a repeat of last year's ignored bowl game but this time with all the implications of playoff football. Now of course the real reason is that I think we should be able to sink them this year (heap of stingers below their water line).
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As long as we don’t get the same officials.
 
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