Ranking projection

Techster

Techster

Helluva Engineer
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20,061
roadkill said:
I keep thinking FPI will eventually start making sense this season. I keep being wrong.
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Yeah, some of these "data based" rankings seems to miss the point of sports: What happens on the field.

At some point, you can't ignore the wins (or losses), because it pretty much nullifies the data. Sagarin has us at #23, I believe, and IMO that's not too far off. I think rankings are +/- a tier differential. That is, any team in the rankings is realistically within +/- 10 spots of their rankings. IF you said GT was #7 or #17 I would say you could make the argument for either ranking.

ESPN FPI reminds me a LOT of corporate accountants that look strictly at numbers to make business and personnel decisions.
 

beeteam

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
115
wvGT11 said:
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Y'all we've been waiting a long damn time for this kind of recognition. It doesn't feel real
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What a freakin’ gladiator. JVDB
 
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Spalding Jacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
843
So here’s the thing, we could beat Cuse by 3 TDs next Saturday and fall to #9 if Vandy beats Mizz and Ole Miss beats OU, cause SEC. Just what I expect, but that’s fine we just need to focus on us.
 

billga99

Helluva Engineer
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1,538
roadkill said:
I keep thinking FPI will eventually start making sense this season. I keep being wrong.
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But look at the incredible conference bias in the ESPN FPI Rankings Top 25. Have to make their main investment conference (SEC) look great. Conference teams in Top 25:
SEC - 11 (including 2 loss TX, TN, LSU and 4 loss Auburn...are you kidding me?)
Big Ten - 8 (including 2 loss USC, Iowa, Michigan, Washington and 4 loss Penn St...again are you kidding me?)
Big 12 - 3
ACC - 2
Notre Dame - 1
You would think their 2nd highest investment ACC would get a little more love. But I guess all ESPN cares about is the SEC. Looks like they want a SEC/Big Ten super conference and just tolerate everyone else. Whomever designed this mess should be fired if their is any desire to have at least a little objectivity.
 

Jacket20

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
144
Y'all need to get over that little brother mentality. We are a different program than the past. We are a different team than the past. This should be our expectations going forward with Coach Key leading us this year and years to come. The woe is me and this team or that team is going to pass us needs to stop. Like I said before, no team with a loss should jump us at this point. We control our own destiny and need to just keep winning!!
 

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,738
Spalding Jacket said:
So here’s the thing, we could beat Cuse by 3 TDs next Saturday and fall to #9 if Vandy beats Mizz and Ole Miss beats OU, cause SEC. Just what I expect, but that’s fine we just need to focus on us.
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Our ranking will basically be decided by others now until the UGA game. We don't have any games left that could move the needle no matter what we do.
 
4shotB

4shotB

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
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6,955
WreckinGT said:
The Duke win got us way more respect then I expected it to.
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@CuseJacket posted a good video breaking down our game. One guy said WTTE that Duke had stats that computer models loved but that the stats don’t account accurately for issues inside the red zone. In my words he said what we saw, they were great at getting yards but terrible in getting points. I thought Duke’s numbers were also skewed somehow by their crazy TO margin. But glad the smart money liked Duke in the game. Only helps with public perception.
 
roadkill

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,769
billga99 said:
But look at the incredible conference bias in the ESPN FPI Rankings Top 25. Have to make their main investment conference (SEC) look great. Conference teams in Top 25:
SEC - 11 (including 2 loss TX, TN, LSU and 4 loss Auburn...are you kidding me?)
Big Ten - 8 (including 2 loss USC, Iowa, Michigan, Washington and 4 loss Penn St...again are you kidding me?)
Big 12 - 3
ACC - 2
Notre Dame - 1
You would think their 2nd highest investment ACC would get a little more love. But I guess all ESPN cares about is the SEC. Looks like they want a SEC/Big Ten super conference and just tolerate everyone else. Whomever designed this mess should be fired if their is any desire to have at least a little objectivity.
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For FPI, I think it’s more preseason bias still in play rather than simply SEC bias. How else can you explain Missouri and Vandy both dropping two ranks after SEC wins? And Vandy beat a highly ranked SEC team. Meanwhile, we beat unranked Duke and rose 9 spots.

Also, since FPI is intended to be predictive, it can have some interesting quirks based on the chances of making the conference playoff. For example, right now, FPI ranks us third overall in the ACC, but gives us the highest chance (33%) of winning it. Higher than Miami’s 27%.
 
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