Conference Realignment

[orientalnc]

I am beginning to think there will be a p4 football only conference by 2030. The ACC and SEC may still exist but won't have football.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Agree. ACC hate seems to always be a popular position. After this latest UNC rumor, it just feels like the media and some fans have a deep-seated need to see the demise of the ACC.

Am I just being thin skinned? Maybe I am Listening to the wrong media?

Like you, I doubt the ACC loses more than 4 schools, max 6. I still think the SEC and B1G will want teams that are additive or at least carry their own weight in TV Viewership and Brand ID. Hopefully, those teams are Georgia Tech, Miami, FSU, Clemson. I believe GT and Miami are most likely to the B1G. FSU and Clemson to the SEC if they can overcome the resistance by USCe and UF. I really don't see UNC and Virginia having that much appeal, particularly in football and football is driving the bus.

I prefer GT in the SEC, but I just have my doubts about getting a return invitation. As others have said maybe GT gets an invitation to the SEC in self-defense from the B1G.

Like you, I don’t know if I’m paying attention to the wrong media or projecting my own dissatisfaction, but every time I start to think maybe the ACC will pull itself out of the fire something else makes me think people are ready to see it burn to the ground. We used to at least think the North Carolina schools had an interest in keeping it afloat but UNC floating rumors about leaving kind of nixes that.

 

[LT 1967]

Like you, I don’t know if I’m paying attention to the wrong media or projecting my own dissatisfaction, but every time I start to think maybe the ACC will pull itself out of the fire something else makes me think people are ready to see it burn to the ground. We used to at least think the North Carolina schools had an interest in keeping it afloat but UNC floating rumors about leaving kind of nixes that.

I am actually beginning to feel sorry for Jim Phillips. During the ACC Kickoff he barely had the words of praise for the ACC out of his mouth before someone claimed that UNC is trying to leave for the SEC. Roughly two years ago, Phillips and half of the conference members were shocked by news of the Magnificent Seven looking into how to find the exit. I believe this happened just prior to the Spring meeting in 2023. That was all the reporters could talk about for the 3 days of the meeting.

I actually believed that UNC would probably release a statement disputing that they were actively working to exit the conference. I am not aware of any such statement so far.

 

[RonJohn]

I am actually beginning to feel sorry for Jim Phillips. During the ACC Kickoff he barely had the words of praise for the ACC out of his mouth before someone claimed that UNC is trying to leave for the SEC. Roughly two years ago, Phillips and half of the conference members were shocked by news of the Magnificent Seven looking into how to find the exit. I believe this happened just prior to the Spring meeting in 2023. That was all the reporters could talk about for the 3 days of the meeting.

I actually believed that UNC would probably release a statement disputing that they were actively working to exit the conference. I am not aware of any such statement so far.

This current story was started by one fan site blogger who said he had "sources" about this happening in five years. It has been repeated by tons of people, but I haven't seen any other actual claims of sources. Internet stories work this way. Somebody says something. People repeat it. Other people repeat the repeats. At that point, everyone believes the story to be 100% true and accurate, even though the original source was sketchy.

 

[orientalnc]

This current story was started by one fan site blogger who said he had "sources" about this happening in five years. It has been repeated by tons of people, but I haven't seen any other actual claims of sources. Internet stories work this way. Somebody says something. People repeat it. Other people repeat the repeats. At that point, everyone believes the story to be 100% true and accurate, even though the original source was sketchy.

And pretty soon it's part of AI. Ain't it great?

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

The ACC with its current members will die. Phillips will end up taking a nicely paid position back at the BIG so need to feel sorry for him.

 

[cpf2001]

Raiding the top of the Big 12 seems like the only move left for the ACC but I think they might have waited for too long and let the negative messaging go on for too long. Concede that you won’t be in the top 2 but do everything you can to be the third with a strong selection of schools who want to be part of whatever future football looks like. But this also means conceding that a few schools will leave.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I am actually beginning to feel sorry for Jim Phillips. During the ACC Kickoff he barely had the words of praise for the ACC out of his mouth before someone claimed that UNC is trying to leave for the SEC. Roughly two years ago, Phillips and half of the conference members were shocked by news of the Magnificent Seven looking into how to find the exit. I believe this happened just prior to the Spring meeting in 2023. That was all the reporters could talk about for the 3 days of the meeting.

I actually believed that UNC would probably release a statement disputing that they were actively working to exit the conference. I am not aware of any such statement so far.

Yeah, I wondered if UNC would put out an official statement too. Apparently, whatever the reason, they’ve determined that the best approach is to not respond.

 

[orientalnc]

Yeah, I wondered if UNC would put out an official statement too. Apparently, whatever the reason, they’ve determined that the best approach is to not respond.

I am convinced the whole thing was fabricated by someone and nothing new happened at UNC. That UNC is interested in joining the SEC is not news. They made a very public announcement months ago that they had hired a law firm to explore that very possibility.

 

[Richard7125]

I am beginning to think there will be a p4 football only conference by 2030. The ACC and SEC may still exist but won't have football.

I see sometime type of Football only organization in the future, but I have no idea how it would work. 1) I don’t see the SEC and Big10 relinquishing their football programs to join some football only conference. The reason the SEC and Big10 make so much money is due to their football programs and I don’t see Sankey (or his predecessor) giving that up. 2) I don’t think the SEC or Big10 expand more because it dilutes their current pie and I don't think they care one bit about helping Clemson, FSU, the ACC or Big12.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I am convinced the whole thing was fabricated by someone and nothing new happened at UNC. That UNC is interested in joining the SEC is not news. They made a very public announcement months ago that they had hired a law firm to explore that very possibility.

And this is why it’s increasingly difficult to imagine a future for the ACC.

 

[MacDaddy2]

Exactly…. Good post & info too.

Everything points to this going down 2029-2031. I would expect those notices to start rolling in during the summer of ‘29 for teams with BIG aspirations and continue through ‘30 for teams with SEC landing spots. Teams departing will do so in ‘30 (BIG) and ‘31 (SEC). The interesting part will be what SEC shares will look like during the 3-4 years before they rework the deal.
That said, I wonder if 2030 will see a restructuring even bigger than a few schools joining the current BIG or SEC…

Hope we are 1st!

 

[MWBATL]

And this is why it’s increasingly difficult to imagine a future for the ACC.

Between all the drama with FSU (and Clemson) UNC’s cheating scandal and now their SEC flirtations, Tobacco Road’s extended snubbing of Georgia Tech in scheduling and other ways….well, I have gotten to the point where I have begun to hope for the wretched death of the ACC. The only thing that keeps me from actively wishing for it is the fear that it will leave GT in a worse position than we are in now...

To steal a line from Shakespeare…”a pox on all their houses!"

 

[CEB]

Hope we are 1st!

The handwringing around the ACC if li’l old Georgia Tech is the first departure… it would be glorious!

 

[g0lftime]

Every school in the ACC must be working on a contingency plan if the conference dissolves. Until there is some sort of legal resolution to give some stability, the future of the ACC will be in question and no one knows for sure how it will play out. There is a UTn RB that may challenge the ability to transfer outside the portal and play as a walkon using NIL. We may see him in Colorado if rumors are true. UT fans are going nuts after I-am-a-leaving drama and now Boo Carter issue. At some point schools may start suing each other over tampering, etc. Its gotten crazy.

 

[Techster]

Every school in the ACC must be working on a contingency plan if the conference dissolves. Until there is some sort of legal resolution to give some stability, the future of the ACC will be in question and no one knows for sure how it will play out. There is a UTn RB that may challenge the ability to transfer outside the portal and play as a walkon using NIL. We may see him in Colorado if rumors are true. UT fans are going nuts after I-am-a-leaving drama and now Boo Carter issue. At some point schools may start suing each other over tampering, etc. Its gotten crazy.

I'm confident every "brand" school in the ACC already knows where they're going. This is why I said years ago that there's a reason FSU and Clemson were publicly picking a fight with the ACC (all the while UNC was snaking around behind the scenes looking for a hole to crawl out of the ACC). You don't pick a multi million dollar fight with someone if there wasn't exponentially more money waiting on you somewhere else. FSU/Clemson/UNC/etc. may be full of themselves, but they're being advised by very powerful and smart lawyers...much smarter than us keyboard cowboys who like to play lawyer.

Fans only know what the ACC and schools like FSU/Clemson/UNC/etc want us to know. If the ACC GOR was as ironclad as everyone made it out to be, the ACC could have firmly stood on the "ironclad" GOR and said "or what?" to those schools. The ACC didn't, they started diluting the media agreement to favor those schools, then whittled down the buyout to from the projected hundreds of millions to $75 million at the time the other conferences' media contracts expire.

None of that is a coincidence.

I don't care what happens to the ACC. IMO, the ACC probably would have been a very weak financial position if GT had left in 2012/2013 for the B1G. Losing the Atlanta media market would have been a HUGE derivative source of the ACC's media payout. Instead, GT staying in the ACC probably held the ACC together longer than what probably would have occurred...which is UNC, UVA, and GT would probably be in the B1G by now. The ACC as we know it is dead man walking. Once 2030 rolls around, the members who already know where they're going will have that the check for the exit fee ready in advance to walk up the ACC's office to say "Good luck, and goodbye." I'm confident GT will be one of those schools this time around.

 

[Vespidae]

Every school in the ACC must be working on a contingency plan if the conference dissolves. Until there is some sort of legal resolution to give some stability, the future of the ACC will be in question and no one knows for sure how it will play out. There is a UTn RB that may challenge the ability to transfer outside the portal and play as a walkon using NIL. We may see him in Colorado if rumors are true. UT fans are going nuts after I-am-a-leaving drama and now Boo Carter issue. At some point schools may start suing each other over tampering, etc. Its gotten crazy.

I don’t see it. As long as ND has a path to the CFP through the ACC, it will remain viable.

 

[LT 1967]

I am convinced the whole thing was fabricated by someone and nothing new happened at UNC. That UNC is interested in joining the SEC is not news. They made a very public announcement months ago that they had hired a law firm to explore that very possibility.

Confirming your comments, below is a SB Nation article basically discussing the earlier pronouncement by UNC about their effort to find a new home. It also likely gives a more realistic schedule when any realignment may actually happen.

See my excerpts below and the SB article linked at bottom. I picked a few paragraphs of interest, but the full article is a good read.

There were a handful of stories published last week about the Tar Heels and the one that got the most attention was a report from Inside Carolina, the incredibly plugged-in and well-sourced 247sports site that covers the Tar Heels, which said that, according to sources, “the SEC is where the Tar Heels are aiming.”

And this report was aggregated from sea-to-shining-sea and served as fodder for a flurry of podcasts and sports radio shows. On one of those shows, there was even speculation about a “handshake” deal between UNC and the SEC, and Virginia and the Big Ten. And that just continued to fuel the aggregation machine as talking season continues in college football.

But, with all due respect to the folks at Inside Carolina, this is not really news.

Of course North Carolina is positioning itself to be picked up by the SEC, one of the two richest conferences currently competing in college athletics. People with real power at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill have said as much on the record. One of them is Dave Boliek, a former member of the UNC Board of Trustees who was elected as State Auditor last year. Before he took office and when he was still serving on the BoT, Boliek was saying things like this:

“We can’t sit back and cross our fingers and pray for pennies from heaven and thinking everything is going to ‘work out.’ We have to actively pursue what’s in the best interests of Carolina athletics… I am advocating for (UNC to join a higher revenue league). That’s what we need to do. We need to do everything we can to get there. Or the alternative is the ACC is going to have to reconstruct itself. I think all options are on the table.”

We also know that while Clemson and Florida State were suing the ACC to wriggle out of what we once thought was an ironclad grant of rights, North Carolina was quietly exploring an exit plan. According to a report from the Athletic in February, the Tar Heels spent more than $600,000 in legal fees on “Carolina Blue Matter” — a code name for UNC’s behind-closed-doors exploration of conference realignment. Work on that project began not long after Texas and Oklahoma announced they were moving to the SEC.


“We have a landing spot if things blow up,” former trustee Chuck Duckett wrote to chairman John Preyer in an email obtained by the Athletic. “Let FSU and Clemson pay the attorneys and see what happens. We all learn via their expense.”

So, Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina aren’t leaving the ACC anytime relatively soon. But in 2030? Sure, we should be on conference realignment watch.

But that’s five years away. And consider how much the landscape of college sports has changed in the last five years. In 2020, the transfer portal was relatively new, we weren’t really talking about NIL or the House Settlement, and conference realignment hadn’t fully taken off. The Pac-12 was still alive and seemingly thriving, the Red River rivalry was still in the Big 12, and the College Football Playoff was only four teams. Women’s college basketball was on the cusp of really taking off but the NCAA still wasn’t sharing the March Madness branding and ESPN still wasn’t airing every game of the women’s tournament on its linear channels. Five years ago, we didn’t have games streaming on Peacock or Paramount+ or HBO Max. Since 2020, watching habits have changed. Is the TV money going to be the same in 2030?

North Carolina isn’t going to the SEC anytime soon

A lot can change between now and 2030. What will college sports look like then? And will the UNC Tar Heels be willing to drive a nail in the ACC’s coffin?

www.sbnation.com

 

[CEB]

“We have a landing spot if things blow up,” former trustee Chuck Duckett wrote to chairman John Preyer in an email obtained by the Athletic. “Let FSU and Clemson pay the attorneys and see what happens. We all learn via their expense.”

I’m thinking (hoping) GT knows the same thing. Pretty well known that GT and UNC had the opportunity. I like to think they still do. No reason to rattle sabres and spend money unless you have to. I think GT falls into that quiet confidence category.

 

[Hoss]

Per the sec rules can’t a founding member always return?