Ratings & Models postmortem

Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

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slugboy said:
ESPN reportedly pays Stephen A Smith $40 million a year. He’s arguably worse

Does she have a point? Apparently not on purpose, but the CFP committee picked Bama over FSU a few years back and ignored Strength of Record and who had the best resume. For us, she’s saying the selection committee might do the opposite. It’s hypocritical, but decision makers aren’t consistent
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Smith probably earns his $40 million.

Before everyone jumps my case, let me explain. ESPN doesn’t pay people to be correct or have deep insight, they pay based on a combination of being bombastic, having strong opinions, and stirring up arguments. That’s media today.

I had a love hate thing for Heather when she was covering the ACC. She could report fairly well on things, even if obvious at times, but I thought, given her beat, she should have been a little bit of a homer for the ACC the way SEC reporters were for their conference. It was as if she eschewed that due to having her sights on a bigger gig.
 
roadkill

roadkill

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Northeast Stinger said:
Smith probably earns his $40 million.
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Since this jaw-dropping amount is on the order of what a P4 school gets from ESPN in an annual distribution, I had to check. It's not $40M from ESPN alone, but the amount is still staggering. His ESPN contract is for $105M over 5 years, for an average of about $20M annually. The $40M number comes from estimates of his total income from Sirius XM, podcasts, and other media. And yes, I assume he's worth it to the media companies.
 
GTBandit22

GTBandit22

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slugboy said:
Ironically, we were much better on that chart this time last year

This year, our logo is buried under NCST and Cincinnati

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A lot of noise this early I would imagine. It’s adjusted for opponent, but I would guess Clemson will end much better than they are now. Colorado is a toss up. GW weighted(rightfully) very low. Not many teams have played 2 P5 teams so far

Like most things, week 8 things will start to shake out.
 
roadkill

roadkill

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GTBandit22 said:
A lot of noise this early I would imagine. It’s adjusted for opponent, but I would guess Clemson will end much better than they are now. Colorado is a toss up. GW weighted(rightfully) very low. Not many teams have played 2 P5 teams so far

Like most things, week 8 things will start to shake out.
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slugboy said:
I’m hoping we will get better too.
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I wish I could trust that the advanced stats like EPA were working with good data from ESPN. At this point in time, I don't.
 
gtrower

gtrower

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TechPhi97 said:
I think this says very good offense and mid defense. We are the 8th rated offense based on that chart.
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Think you’re looking at the 2024 weeks 1-3 chart. I think we’re going to end up moving our way NE on this chart each week given our upcoming schedule. As has been stated previously, we’ve likely played 2 of the 3 best DLs on our schedule already. And not too many more Seantrels Henderson / Colorado refs left on the schedule either.
 
slugboy

slugboy

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gtrower said:
Think you’re looking at the 2024 weeks 1-3 chart. I think we’re going to end up moving our way NE on this chart each week given our upcoming schedule. As has been stated previously, we’ve likely played 2 of the 3 best DLs on our schedule already. And not too many more Seantrels Henderson / Colorado refs left on the schedule either.
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Yeah (cc @TechPhi97 ) the 2025 chart is “mid defense, slightly above average offense”. The 2024 is “great offense , mid defense”

This time last year, we beat FSU away, Georgia State at home, and lost to Syracuse, with about the same point total. Our offense is a little more efficient this year, but fewer big plays. After three games, it’s probably not statistically different.

Two games in last year, we thought we were a top 20 team. That fell off after the Syracuse loss and some injuries.

We are probably a little ahead of last year at this point. I can think of a few places we’re better. If we improve game by game, we could be really special

These charts aren’t well-enough connected at this point to tell a real story, and that’s assuming the source data is good. Trying to be opponent adjusted is good, but there aren’t enough games to do that accurately yet
 
gtrower

gtrower

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slugboy said:
Yeah (cc @TechPhi97 ) the 2025 chart is “mid defense, slightly above average offense”. The 2024 is “great offense , mid defense”

This time last year, we beat FSU away, Georgia State at home, and lost to Syracuse, with about the same point total. Our offense is a little more efficient this year, but fewer big plays. After three games, it’s probably not statistically different.

Two games in last year, we thought we were a top 20 team. That fell off after the Syracuse loss and some injuries.

We are probably a little ahead of last year at this point. I can think of a few places we’re better. If we improve game by game, we could be really special

These charts aren’t well-enough connected at this point to tell a real story, and that’s assuming the source data is good. Trying to be opponent adjusted is good, but there aren’t enough games to do that accurately yet
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Yeah I wonder how they adjust it. Like do our stats here get dinged for Clemson being 1-2? I’m fairly confident our offense is better than we’re seeing here on the chart. And if our defense simply holds serve from last year we’re probably a 10ish win team with this schedule and our backup QB situation.
 
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