Agreed on both of your main points. My “fixes” would be to:
Yep.. that is the math. Here is the problem. I'm repeating myself. UGA is going to probably be no lower than the #3 overall seed with an RPI 10-15. So... the committee is basically tossing RPI for UGA (for probably good reason). Now... if you're saying RPI does not suit your purposes for UGA... how can you justify leaning on it so heavily for ~90% of the field??
I'm sure this has been addressed here already, but there are two other metrics the committee has said publicly they will look at this year in addition to the RPI - the Kevin Pauga Index (KPI) and Diamond Sports Rankings (DSR). Sometimes there is quite a disparity between those and RPI.
Yes. Thank you for that reminder. No doubt the committee will use other metrics and some subjectivity in all this. Massey compiles a composite rating thing. Good visual to see the outliers of different systems. IT does not look like he has KPI included, though. Wonder why? DSR is there.
masseyratings.com
Agree on point #2, but the posts you've been doing weekly about home/road series wins shows that they have point #1 almost dead nuts perfect. If anything, they have it skewed slightly more neutral than it should be. There's still the fundamental math flaw that 1/1.3 isn't 0.7 , but the 1.3:1 weighting is correct.
I've wondered the same about KPI.... why isn't it referenced by these composite sights? And it's not just Massey, PEAR also omitted KPI when it showed a chart about how the various ranking systems have performed as predictive tools. They all seem to ignore KPI even though, prior to this season, KPI was THE ONLY metric the committee looked at other than RPI. The committee has added DSR this year. ELO and PEAR aren't used by the committee, so referencing them when discussing where a team should be seeded shouldn't be done. Maybe they should be used, but right now they aren't.Yes. Thank you for that reminder. No doubt the committee will use other metrics and some subjectivity in all this. Massey compiles a composite rating thing. Good visual to see the outliers of different systems. IT does not look like he has KPI included, though. Wonder why? DSR is there.
You'll see UGA's lowest ranking appears in RPI. Notably, WVU, ASU, and Tenn in that category too.
The lowest are highlighted BLUE and the highest in RED.
Massey Ratings - College Baseball Rankings
College Baseball computer rankings and polls, weekly composite
Yes. As I mentioned Sunday night, they will be in the conversation if they take care of business this weekend (win the series) and then lose the SoCon championship game. Their KPI/DSR score (51/44) may preclude them, but they will be in the discussion. It may come down to how many bids are stolen in conference tourneys by less than stellar teams.
On point 2, why would that matter, other than for perception. My understanding of RPI is it’s just based off of Winning Pct - .25 * Yours + .50 * opponents + .25 * opponents’. opponents. Where winning % is using the 1.4, 1.0, 0.7 weighted values for home or away wins. “Capping” RPI wouldn’t change the underlying records of other teams.
The worst part about RPI to me is that you can get a big bump from losing badly to a good team.
With a (current) RPI of 29, they’ll most definitely get an at large bid and would be a #2 somewhere. As long as they stay ahead of the 30 RPI mark, we shouldn’t see them in our region. Hopefully.
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