NFL Draft 2026

[roadkill]

I would suggest that it supports the top of the star rating system, the top 50-150 players who largely get scattered across those top programs, and who accumulate in significant numbers there over 3-4 years. Those who most all who have eyes can see on a football field.

Saying those guys will make it big as college players is profoundly stating the obvious, like proudly proclaiming water is wet.

It’s the rest of the 2500-3000 or so guys that cannot be accurately predicted. Like the “scouts” who assigned Fernando Mendoza a 2* rating.

Yes, the correlation should be intuitive to most. But some pooh-pooh the recruit rankings as not reflecting reality, or not being a useful indicator of, well, anything. I'm simply pointing out that rankings, in composite, are validated by the graph. There will always be some Mendozas as exceptions. I’m hoping we have a few of those on our team now.

Speaking of our team, if you look at a breakdown by year of our Talent Composite, it shows a generally positive trend for the period in question. Not knocking our overachiever coach (CPJ), but for reference, his talent composite at the end of his tenure (2018) was 83.84.

 

[stinger78]

Yes, the correlation should be intuitive to most. But some pooh-pooh the recruit rankings as not reflecting reality, or not being a useful indicator of, well, anything. I'm simply pointing out that rankings, in composite, are validated by the graph. There will always be some Mendozas as exceptions. I’m hoping we have a few of those on our team now.

Speaking of our team, if you look at a breakdown by year of our Talent Composite, it shows a generally positive trend for the period in question. Not knocking our overachiever coach (CPJ), but for reference, his talent composite at the end of his tenure (2018) was 83.84.

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The correlation only at the top - the 4/5* players. The 2/3* player are too diverse with too many latent factors to predict. Those guys ought to be lumped together and not figured in any rankings. Those ranking are bogus.

If you take the top 150 players: the top 50 players being 5* and the next 100 being 4*. The 5* guys largely go to the top 15 programs - on average 3-4 per year. Over 3-4 years that's 12-15 of those guys who are the men among boys on a HS field. That's a big difference for those programs.

Then you have the 4* guys who are maybe 50% committed to those top 15 programs as well. That's another 3-4 per those teams. So, 6-10 5/4* players per team - on average - for those top 15 programs. That's now 25-30 4.5* players who accumulate at those programs. The other 50 4* players scatter across the next 15 programs. That's 3-4 per team for the #16-30 programs. Again, 3-4 per year, 12-15 over 3 years. That's how it's done and you never get past the 4/5* guys and the top 30 programs.

Anything beyond that is baloney, IMPO, and is up to many, many factors.

 

[LongforDodd]

Yes, a QB will look better with better talent around him. However, it’s not like Clemson hasn’t had talent. Since 2022 they have had 3 RB, 1 WR, 1 QB, 1 TE, and 2 OL drafted. That’s 8 offensive players over the last 4 seasons. Who knows how many transferred out over that time. While certainly not elite, that’s a whole lot better than they have shown in the field.

How many of these have stuck around the nfl after their drafting? I think that’s where the quality of anyone’s talent backwardly translates ( I made that up ) to a real composite with which to decide what we’re discussing.

 

[kg01]

Tbh ,me and Lenny are just here waiting for a Pavia update.

 

[GT1977!]

i don't want to be that guy but when you are runnign a pro-style down hill run game the QB getting everyone into the right play is actually the most important thing. This was the difference between JT and Taquan Marshall. Marshall was good at exectuting the called play. Jt could read the defense and get us into the right play (called vert shot comeback rout on 3rd and 10 vs NC state thomas takes one look at the defense checks to a trap days gets 45. "No one was there." comes to mind.

I will love it if Mendoza little bro is JT....but I will also love it if he is Taquan....
My point has been that Grady was top ranked QB in OK 2 years ago.... he is bigger and faster than little bro.... Not as if he was only a star at GA single A Prince Avenue Christian....
And he is Tech man.... Signed here because he loved the Tech story..... same with Knowles... Love them both, if only for this reason....
Oh well... maybe coaches now think Grady and Graham suck.... in that case, our recruiting evaluation sucked, too....

 

[jgtengineer]

I will love it if Mendoza little bro is JT....but I will also love it if he is Taquan....
My point has been that Grady was top ranked QB in OK 2 years ago.... he is bigger and faster than little bro.... Not as if he was only a star at GA single A Prince Avenue Christian....
And he is Tech man.... Signed here because he loved the Tech story..... same with Knowles... Love them both, if only for this reason....
Oh well... maybe coaches now think Grady and Graham suck.... in that case, our recruiting evaluation sucked, too....

Or they don't think they suck at all and just feel mendoza has a better grasp on what they are Installing

 

[stinger78]

How many of these have stuck around the nfl after their drafting? I think that’s where the quality of anyone’s talent backwardly translates ( I made that up ) to a real composite with which to decide what we’re discussing.

I don’t disagree. They are not where they were in the late teens. They are however, capable of winning more that they have, and the struggles at QB have contributed to that, IMPO.

 

[GT1977!]

Or they don't think they suck at all and just feel mendoza has a better grasp on what they are Installing

And, in reference to my original post.... Our coaches "grasp" is, incrementally, how much better?
... $3mil?... when we need so very much on defense? ....
Is the "incremental" anticipated performance diff between Mendoza II vs Grady/Graham worth $3mil?
If so, fire our HS recruiting coordinator.
Oh well, I hope we win 10 with little bro.... but doubt, even we had HK/Joe, we can get to 9 in '26 .....

 

[LargeFO]

It is interesting to me that Omar Daniel’s hasn’t received a deal. IMO he’s better than Shelley and CPL.

 

[forensicbuzz]

And, in reference to my original post.... Our coaches "grasp" is, incrementally, how much better?
... $3mil?... when we need so very much on defense? ....
Is the "incremental" anticipated performance diff between Mendoza II vs Grady/Graham worth $3mil?
If so, fire our HS recruiting coordinator.
Oh well, I hope we win 10 with little bro.... but doubt, even we had HK/Joe, we can get to 9 in '26 .....

I’m going to go with they know more than you or me, so I’m putting my trust in the coaches to make the right decisions. They’ve earned the right to not be second guessed. But discussion is good.

 

[GT1977!]

I’m going to go with they know more than you or me, so I’m putting my trust in the coaches to make the right decisions. They’ve earned the right to not be second guessed. But discussion is good.

"They’ve earned the right to not be second guessed."
And here I thought that CFB chat rooms were, by definition, the place to "second guess", expressing one's opinion as we watch coach's decisions unfold.
My opinion is that Brent has made a mistake. Little bro is not $3mil better than Tech men Grady and/or Graham.
But my opinion is not "second guessing".... It is April ....so I am "First Guessing"
LOL!
Hope Mendoza is All-ACC and leads us to 10 wins....

 

[Root4GT]

I will love it if Mendoza little bro is JT....but I will also love it if he is Taquan....
My point has been that Grady was top ranked QB in OK 2 years ago.... he is bigger and faster than little bro.... Not as if he was only a star at GA single A Prince Avenue Christian....
And he is Tech man.... Signed here because he loved the Tech story..... same with Knowles... Love them both, if only for this reason....
Oh well... maybe coaches now think Grady and Graham suck.... in that case, our recruiting evaluation sucked, too....

Let the best player win the competition. It’s not hard to understand or accept. I Haynes King a Tech man even though he transferred to GT from Texas A&M? Heck yes he is!

 

[GT1977!]

“…trust in coaches to make the right decisions”
Indiana coach Cignetti saw enough of little brother to offer him less than $500k to stick around and be back up QB… but Brent gives him $3mil ….when we have AAAAA Texas star from ‘23 class, then best QB in OK from ‘24 class, then best QB from LA ‘25 class.
So do you trust Brent’s judgement more than Cignetti’s …. or is an Indiana cast off new best GT can do? Or our HS recruiting director must be fired immediately

 

[takethepoints]

“…trust in coaches to make the right decisions”
Indiana coach Cignetti saw enough of little brother to offer him less than $500k to stick around and be back up QB… but Brent gives him $3mil ….when we have AAAAA Texas star from ‘23 class, then best QB in OK from ‘24 class, then best QB from LA ‘25 class.
So do you trust Brent’s judgement more than Cignetti’s …. or is an Indiana cast off new best GT can do? Or our HS recruiting director must be fired immediately

Well, I thought Tech was done with QB hunting and was content for reasons you point out. Then Cignetti went out and bought Josh Hoover from TCU. Can't blame him; Hoover is a superstar and easily better as a risk than Mendoza. But the $500K doesn't mean that Cignetti thought Mendoza was a bad QB. It was more that he liked Hoover better (who wouldn't?) and wanted the NIL money for him.

We'll just have to see how Mendoza works out. Either he was a good idea or he wasn't. If not, there are plenty of talented young QBs to replace him.

 

[Techster]

“…trust in coaches to make the right decisions”
Indiana coach Cignetti saw enough of little brother to offer him less than $500k to stick around and be back up QB… but Brent gives him $3mil ….when we have AAAAA Texas star from ‘23 class, then best QB in OK from ‘24 class, then best QB from LA ‘25 class.
So do you trust Brent’s judgement more than Cignetti’s …. or is an Indiana cast off new best GT can do? Or our HS recruiting director must be fired immediately

Where are you getting these numbers from?

 

[jgtengineer]

Where are you getting these numbers from?

Source is trust me bro

 

[stinger78]

Well, I thought Tech was done with QB hunting and was content for reasons you point out. Then Cignetti went out and bought Josh Hoover from TCU. Can't blame him; Hoover is a superstar and easily better as a risk than Mendoza. But the $500K doesn't mean that Cignetti thought Mendoza was a bad QB. It was more that he liked Hoover better (who wouldn't?) and wanted the NIL money for him.

We'll just have to see how Mendoza works out. Either he was a good idea or he wasn't. If not, there are plenty of talented young QBs to replace him.

And this is what I truly dislike about CFB today. Used to be if you wanted to upgrade your QB room you’d do it the old fashioned way - recruit one out of HS and develop him. In the meantime you ran with the guys you had.

Today, they can go the transfer route and buy a better QB off of another team, even if there are multiple good ones already on the team. Stinks for those good QB’s already on the team.

 

[TechPhi97]

It

I’m going to go with they know more than you or me, so I’m putting my trust in the coaches to make the right decisions. They’ve earned the right to not be second guessed. But discussion is good.

It’s almost like there is this thing called “progress” that is a combination of physical work, mental capacity and determination. This “progress” that I speak of means that, all things being equal at a point in time 2 years prior, two people may be at vastly different places in their “progression”. Nobel Prize incoming…

Seriously, anyone who has played sports knows this - people get better and the change happens with different trajectories and with peaks and valleys. Actually, anyone who has undertaken improvement in an endeavor where you are compared to others knows this.

 

[GTDwarf]

It is interesting to me that Omar Daniel’s hasn’t received a deal. IMO he’s better than Shelley and CPL.

Yeah not even a camp invite. Really surprising to me.

 

[GTJackets]

Tbh ,me and Lenny are just here waiting for a Pavia update.

Weird situation, but he signed...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/48619793/ravens-sign-undrafted-qbs-diego-pavia-joe-fagnano-minicamp